The swift and massive shock of the coronavirus pandemic and shutdown measures to contain it have plunged the global economy into a severe contraction. According to World Bank forecasts, the global economy will shrink by 5.2% this year.
The outlook for the global economy in 2019 has darkened.
International trade and investment have softened. Trade tensions remain elevated. Several large emerging markets underwent substantial financial pressures last year.
Against this challenging backdrop, growth in emerging market and developing economies is expected to remain flat in 2019. The pickup in economies that rely heavily on commodity exports is likely to be much slower than hoped for. Growth in many other economies is anticipated to decelerate.
In addition, risks are growing that growth could be even weaker than anticipated, the World Bank’s January 2019 Global Economic Prospects reports.
Current Slack in Global Economy Expected to Fade
WASHINGTON, January 9, 2018— The World Bank forecasts global economic growth to edge up to 3.1 percent in 2018 after a much stronger-than-expected 2017, as the recovery in investment, manufacturing, and trade continues, and as commodity-exporting developing economies benefit from firming commodity prices.
However, this is largely seen as a short-term upswing. Over the longer term, slowing potential growth—a measure of how fast an economy can expand when labor and capital are fully employed—puts at risk gains in improving living standards and reducing poverty around the world, the World Bank warns in its January 2018 Global Economic Prospects.
Press Release; October 8th, 2016
1. The Development Committee met today, October 8, in Washington, D.C.
2. Global economic growth remains sluggish in 2016, with only a modest pick-up expected in 2017. Demand has remained soft despite highly stimulative monetary policies, foreign direct investment to developing countries has decreased, commodity exporters are adjusting to declines in exports, and wider geopolitical and economic uncertainties are weighing on confidence. We call on the World Bank Group (WBG) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to work jointly with countries to enhance synergy among monetary, fiscal and structural reform policies, stimulate growth, create jobs, and strengthen the gains from multilateralism for all.
After growing by an estimated 2.6 percent in 2014, the global economy is projected to expand by 3 percent this year, 3.3 percent in 2016 and 3.2 percent in 2017, predicts the Bank’s twice-yearly flagship. Developing countries grew by 4.4 percent in 2014 and are expected to edge up to 4.8 percent in 2015, strengthening to 5.3 and 5.4 percent in 2016 and 2017, respectively.
“In this uncertain economic environment, developing countries need to judiciously deploy their resources to support social programs with a laser-like focus on the poor and undertake structural reforms that invest in people,” said World Bank Group President Jim Yong Kim. “It’s also critical for countries to remove any unnecessary roadblocks for private sector investment. The private sector is by far the greatest source of jobs and that can lift hundreds of millions of people out of poverty.”
Read the World Bank press release here.