. This poses a serious threat to food security, as the planting season starts this summer. So far, the war in Ukraine has mostly affected countries importing wheat and corn. But many countries, including some major food exporters, are net fertilizer importers. Persistently high fertilizer prices may spread to a broader variety of crops including rice, a staple which has not yet seen war-related price hikes.
The war in Ukraine could soon deliver a tragic blow to many of the world’s poorest countries:
, the World Bank’s latest data show. Over the next year, the tab for imports of wheat, rice, and maize in these countries is expected to rise by the equivalent of more than 1 percent of GDP. That is more than twice the size of the 2021-2022 increase—and, given the relatively small size of these economies, it’s also twice as large as the expected increase for middle-income economies.