Is the “Lump of Labor Fallacy” Actually a Fallacy in Developing Economies

There is a persistent and intuitively appealing idea that haunts labor market policy debates in developing economies: that jobs are a fixed pie, and if an older worker keeps a slice, a young person goes hungry. In countries where youth unemployment is stubbornly, painfully high – think Morocco at over 35 percent for those aged 15-24, or Brazil’s substantial informal workforce – it can feel almost morally obvious that older workers should step aside and make room.

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The Economics of a Livable Planet: 5 Things Every Policymaker, CEO, and Development Practitioner Should Know

For decades, policymakers assumed that prosperity is driven by building infrastructure, mobilizing labor, and creating financial systems to spur investment – while nature has been treated as abundant and free. Yet economic progress always relied on Earth’s natural assets: fertile soils that feed civilizations, clean water that sustains health and productivity, and forests that supply materials. But what happens when natural resources and the services they provide are no longer abundant?

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The world is facing a looming jobs crisis. Cities can help

Over the next decade, an unprecedented 1.2 billion young people in the Global South will become working-age adults. However, the job market in these countries is projected to create only 420 million jobs, leaving nearly 800 million people without a clear path to prosperity.

That’s why the World Bank is doubling down on job creation and employment as not just the byproduct of our projects, but the explicit aim of them. Looking to the future, it is clear that urban development will play a key role in that process.

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