As we cross the halfway point of 2025, mounting headwinds are slowing down global trade. A decade-long rise in trade restrictions has been supercharged by sharp tariff hikes and retaliatory measures from major economies over the past three months. Although some of these measures have since been rolled back and fresh negotiations are underway, businesses are still navigating choppy waters—including elevated policy uncertainty, stretched supply chains, and the ever-present threat of new barriers. In the face of this, we explore how these headwinds will likely reshape trade growth this year and next, identify the most critical risks ahead, and highlight the bright spots that could help steady the ship.
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past 30 years, low- and middle-income countries doubled their share of global exports to 30 percent. Over the same period, the share of the world’s population living in extreme poverty declined dramatically — from 47 percent to just 10 percent. One billion people climbed out of poverty.
it. However, these policies are not only reshaping the landscape of global trade flows but also risking further fragmentation and inequality. 
downside risks. Global trade growth has weakened, while investment prospects have softened; both of these remain important engines of growth, productivity, innovation, job creation and sustainable development. Debt vulnerabilities persist, and policy uncertainty is weighing on confidence. For developing countries, it is important to adopt growth-enhancing policies while containing risks and protecting the most vulnerable. The World Bank Group, in partnership with the International Monetary Fund, is able to help countries in addressing these concerns.
Netherlands for the World Bank 
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