Publication: Commodity Markets Outlook, October 2023: Under the Shadow of Geopolitical Risks

 
Abstract02 - CMO 2023b Frontmatters.pub
The conflict in the Middle East—the latest of an extraordinary series of shocks in recent years—has heightened geopolitical risks for commodity markets, in an already uncertain global environment. Before the conflict began, voluntary oil supply withdrawals by OPEC+ producers pushed energy prices up 9 percent in the third quarter. As a result, the World Bank’s commodity price index rose 5 percent over that period and is now 45 percent above its 2015-19 average. For now, the war’s impact on commodity prices have been muted. Prices of oil and gold have risen moderately, but most other commodity prices have remained relatively stable. Nevertheless, history suggests that an escalation of the conflict represents a major risk that could lead to surging prices of oil and other commodities. A Special Focus section provides a preliminary assessment of the potential impact of the conflict on commodity prices. It finds that the effects of the conflict are likely to be limited, assuming the conflict does not widen. Under that assumption, the baseline forecast calls for commodity prices to decline slightly over the next two years. If the conflict does escalate, the assessment also includes what might happen under three risk scenarios, relying upon historical precedents to estimate the effects of small, moderate, and large disruptions to the global oil supply. The magnitude of the effects will depend on the duration and scale of the supply disruptions.
 
 
 

 

The World Bank’s Bold New Vision

On October 13, 2023, at the World Bank-IMF Annual Meetings in Marrakech, Ajay Banga delivered a landmark address on the Bank’s new vision and mission and the roadmap to achieve it. Read the full remarks, watch the video, and see highlights below.

Law, Justice and Development Week 2023—Partnering for Impact: Enabling and Mobilizing the Private Sector for Sustainable Development

 

The Law, Justice and Development (LJD) Week is an annual conference organized by780X439Web-page-V5-01 the Legal Vice Presidency of the World Bank in collaboration with partners within and outside the World Bank Group (WBG). It convenes participants from across the globe to meet and share knowledge, as well as to network and strengthen relationships for collaboration and collective action in the sphere of law, justice and development. The mission of WBG is to end extreme poverty and boost shared prosperity on a livable planet. To achieve sustainable, durable and inclusive development, WBG works in partnership with other development finance institutions (DFIs), international organizations, the public and private sectors, academia and civil society.

The theme of this year’s conference is Partnering for Impact: Enabling and Mobilizing the Private Sector for Sustainable Development. DFIs have an indispensable role to play in addressing global polycrises that undermine many of the development gains made to date and threaten most of the urgent priorities going forward. The scale of these challenges is beyond the capacity of the public sector alone and requires both private finance for private sector investments and private finance for public sector spending. LJD Week 2023 will examine how the various development partners can optimize their collaboration with particular emphasis on enabling and mobilizing the private sector. Please join us in person at the WBG Headquarters in Washington, DC or online on November 13-15, 2023.

 
 

 

Regional Economic Updates

 
Here are the latest bi-annual regional economic updates to explore the macro developmentecon-update trends in Africa, East Asia and the Pacific, Europe and Central Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean, the Middle East and North Africa, and South Asia. 

These reports are issued the week before the World Bank-International Monetary Fund Annual Meetings in Morocco, October 9-15.

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Infrastructure, economics, and a sustainable future: A Chief Economist’s perspective

 

In the 1990s, I embarked on a journey that took me from the classrooms of Paris to theinfrastructure-1440x500.jpg dusty countryside of Paraguay. Little did I know then that my diverse experiences, from peddling goods door-to-door to advising governments, would shape my role as an economist specializing in infrastructure and development. Now, as the Chief Economist for Infrastructure at the World Bank, I stand at the intersection of a complex global landscape. 

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The Future of Financial Inclusion

 

Financial inclusion 2.0. – creating more inclusive, resilient, and green futures

In recent years, the world has faced many unprecedented shocks and stresses that have exacerbated existing development challenges—all of which have disproportionate impacts on the most vulnerable, especially women and girls. People living in poverty constantly juggle an evolving set of risks and crises in their daily lives. However, the additional challenges posed by the COVID-19 pandemic, inflation, climate change, conflicts, and other shocks have intensified poverty and inequality. The World Bank now projects that 7% of the world’s population—more than half a billion people—will remain in extreme poverty in 2030 (Figure 1). The World Economic Forum predicts that the timeline to close the global gender gap1 has increased by a full generation (from 99.5 years to 135.6 years).

figure 1

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Annual Meetings: World Bank Events

The World Bank Group-International Monetary Fund Annual Meetings are back this year from 800d55482b8a001430e9bd85208db430e8752f1021f4bcb1d0087a3ce4d82684October 9-15, and we hope you’ll join us! 

Live from Marrakech, Morocco, the 2023 Meetings focus on what it will take to end poverty on a livable planet. Events will explore the new playbook we need to respond to intertwined global challenges. What solutions have worked on the ground in developing countries? How do we boost jobs, digital infrastructure, and climate action?

Mark your calendar and sign up for email reminders to join our public events online. This is your opportunity to interact with central bankers, ministers, private sector executives, civil society representatives, youth leaders, academics, and others on issues facing our world today. Ask questions to our experts and join the conversation with the hashtag #WBmeetings, as we bring you our events in EnglishArabicFrench and Spanish.

 

 
 

 

IFC: Creating New Commercial Relationships in India

 

The National Recovery Program Bureau (NRPB) is pleased to announce an upcomingpro-pic procurement information session aimed at raising awareness among the local, regional, and even the international market on essential aspects when bidding for Sint Maarten Trust Fund projects. This initiative seeks to promote transparency, inclusivity, and efficiency in the procurement process while enhancing the potential for participation of small companies in Sint Maarten.

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