Emerging and Developing Economies in the 21st Century

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Global growth is expected to hold steady at 2.7 percent in 2025-26. However, the global economy appears to be settling at a low growth rate that will be insufficient to foster sustained economic development. Emerging market and developing economies are set to enter the second quarter of the 21st century with per capita incomes on a trajectory that implies feeble catch-up toward those of advanced economies. Most low-income countries are not on course to graduate to middle-income status by 2050. Policy action at the global and national levels is needed to foster a more favorable external environment, enhance macroeconomic stability, reduce structural constraints, address the effects of climate change, and thus accelerate long-term growth and development.

Global Economic Prospects

Why global growth is tepid, but commodity prices remain high

Global economic growth this year and next is expected to be nearly half a percentage point finance-payments-bening-coins-1140x500_1140x500slower than the average in the half decade before the COVID-19 pandemic. Yet average commodity prices in 2024-2025 are predicted to remain close to 40 percent above 2015-2019 levels (Figure 1).

Prices of energy and food commodities, for instance, are expected to moderate but remain about 40 and 30 percent above their 2015-2019 averages, respectively. Base metals prices are set to rise slightly this year and next, averaging roughly 40 percent higher than in 2015-2019. 

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January 2020 Global Economic Prospects: Slow growth, policy challenges

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  • The world economy is poised for a modest rebound this year, but outlook is fragile.
  • Emerging, developing economy growth to accelerate in 2020 as some emerging economies recover from periods of stress.
  • Rise in debt, slowdown in productivity pose challenges for policymakers.