Updated estimates of the impact of COVID-19 on global poverty: Looking back at 2020 and the outlook for 2021

 

As the new year brings some hope for the fight against COVID-19, we are looking back and taking stock of the effect of the pandemic on poverty in 2020. In October 2020, using the June vintage of growth forecasts from the Global Economic Prospects, we estimated that between 88 and 115 million people around the globe would be pushed into extreme poverty in 2020. Using the January 2021 forecasts from GEP, we now expect the COVID-19-induced new poor in 2020 to rise to between 119 and 124 million. This range of estimates is in line with other estimates based on alternative recent growth forecasts.

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2020!

This time last year, concepts such as “lockdowns,” “mask mandates” and “social distancing” were unknown to most of us. Today they are part of our everyday language as the COVID-19 pandemic continues to affect our lives.

The Year in Charts: From Education to GDP – what was the impact of the pandemic in 2020? Our 12 charts help you understand this extraordinary year.

Looking Ahead: In a special year end edition of The Development Podcast, World Bank Group President David Malpass and Interim MD and COO of the IFC Stephanie von Friedeburg look back on 2020 and examine the path to a resilient recovery in 2021.

Global Solidarity: As 2020 comes to a close, investing in people is more important than ever, as we see the devastating impact that COVID-19 is having on people and economies worldwide. Global solidarity and protecting human capital is critical for accelerating progress.

Good Governance: Hoping to help stimulate debate on how governments can help end poverty and boost shared prosperity, we’ve curated some of our best blog posts on #GoodGov from 2020. Check out this interactive timeline.

Priorities in South Asia: As we wrap up this unprecedented year, we reflect on how the region faced the devastating impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, rose to the challenge to create better development outcomes for its people and prepared for a more resilient future.

Tweet on! COVID-19 has shaken the water sector. As we look back at the tweets that got the highest engagement this year, we continue to be inspired by our Twitter community and their commitment to build a water-secure world for all. Here are the top 10 tweets of 2020 from @WorldBankWater.

Resilient Food Systems: COVID-19 tested the strength of both production and distribution (resulting in both food shortages and waste), highlighted the importance of good nutrition, and increased food insecurity in all countries. The spread of desert locusts compounded impacts of the pandemic, conflict, and climate change. Here are 20 stories, blogs, events, and interviews that explored challenges–as well as opportunities–that affected food and agriculture this year.

Climate Change Fight: Even with COVID-19 lending, the World Bank Group surpassed its climate finance target for FY20, allocating nearly $21.4 billion to climate-related investments. Here is a snapshot of 10 efforts the Bank Group advanced in climate action in this unprecedented year.

Challenge and Opportunity: For the Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency (MIGA), 2020 started like many others until the pandemic struck. Here is a month by month look at how MIGA pressed forward this year.

2020 Year in Review: The impact of COVID-19 in 12 charts

This time last year, concepts such as “lockdowns,” “mask mandates” and “social distancing” en_yir_blogs_herowere unknown to most of us. Today they are part of our everyday language as the COVID-19 pandemic continues to impact all aspects of our lives. Through the following 12 charts and graphics, we try to quantify and provide an overview of our colleagues’ research in the face of a truly unprecedented crisis. 

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November 9, 2020 update: My Op-Ed and engagements from last week

I would like to briefly highlight some of my writing and engagements from last week:Malpass-IMF

Op-Ed: To Cope With Covid, the World’s Poor Need Debt Relief

In last week’s Wall Street Journal, I published an op-ed urging greater transparency and timely and meaningful debt relief for the people of the world’s poorest countries. These are immediate, critical needs as countries work to recover from the global pandemic, and we can no longer afford to kick the debt can down the road – developing countries need relief now.

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Tackling poor air quality: Lessons from three cities

How can countries grow their economies and keep air pollution in check at the same time? A shutterstock_1040255047new World Bank report explores that tricky question, looking at the kinds of policies and actions three leading cities have taken to tackle poor local air quality, providing lessons for other cities. As we mark World Cities Day on October 31, this research seems more timely than ever.

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Fighting the Spread of COVID-19 with First Hand Sanitizers Made in Chad

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  • In spring 2020, the unprecedented demand for many products has strained supply chains worldwide as production lines stopped working to avoid the spread of the corona virus epidemic.
  • It became virtually impossible to find front line protective products against the virus: gloves, face masks and bottles of hand sanitizer.
  • This situation prompted Chad to launch its first ever production of these precious flasks.

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Four cornerstones of a resilient recovery for all

As of this month, over a million people have lost their lives to COVID-19. More than 35 million 50341021731_0ff8b47ebf_kare infected. In every part of the world, the poorest are suffering most, and the World Bank’s recently released Poverty and Shared Prosperity Report estimates that global extreme poverty will rise this year for the first time in a generation. In 2020 alone, the pandemic could drastically increase the number of people living in extreme poverty, by 88 to 115 million. This is the worst setback ever in our quest to end poverty.  Furthermore, the impact of COVID-19 is not just affecting the extreme poor, but lockdowns and sudden cessations of economic activity and mobility have had a broader impact than previous crises. The faces of the “new poor” are more likely to be urban and educated and to be engaged in informal services and manufacturing, rather than agriculture; and middle-income countries will be significantly affected.  Women are also more impacted, as they are twice as likely to lose their jobs compared to men. They also bear the brunt of family care under lockdown, and many are “skipping meals” as a response to reduced incomes.

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People Peace Prosperity

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The Fragility Forum is underway! After it was postponed due to concerns around 936490e805722009c3ea29a4bb898db1ac1f5ee98f404983af1a10660eaab8c2COVID-19, it has been transformed into a Virtual Series that will take place through August 31, 2020.

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Debt Report 2020 Edition I

For the first time, the Debt team at the World Bank Development Economics Data Group image(DECDG) will publish online a new series of Debt Reports, at regular intervals, over the course of the year. Their aim is to provide users with analyses of evolving trends and development related to external debt and public debt in individual countries and regional groups, with primary emphasis on low- and middle-income countries, and to keep users abreast of debt-related issues and initiatives.

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January 2020 Global Economic Prospects: Slow growth, policy challenges

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  • The world economy is poised for a modest rebound this year, but outlook is fragile.
  • Emerging, developing economy growth to accelerate in 2020 as some emerging economies recover from periods of stress.
  • Rise in debt, slowdown in productivity pose challenges for policymakers.