Global food commodity markets entered 2026 on a relatively stable footing, supported by ample grain and edible oil supplies. However, escalating conflict in the Middle East has disrupted that stability, introducing new volatility into food trade and input markets. The World Bank Group’s April 2026 Commodity Markets Outlook projects a 2.5 percent increase in the global food commodity price index this year, but risks are firmly tilted to the upside. The emergence of El Niño conditions, rising energy and fertilizer costs, growing biofuel demand, and potential trade restrictions could all push food prices significantly above current projections.