Inflationary Pressures Ease, But Geopolitical Tensions Cloud Outlook
WASHINGTON, October 29, 2025—Global commodity prices are projected to fall to their lowest level in six years in 2026, marking the fourth consecutive year of decline, according to the World Bank Group’s latest Commodity Markets Outlook. Prices are forecast to drop by 7% in both 2025 and 2026, driven by weak global economic growth, a growing oil surplus, and persistent policy uncertainty.
Continue readingGlobal economic growth this year and next is expected to be nearly half a percentage point 
slower than the average in the half decade before the COVID-19 pandemic. Yet average commodity prices in 2024-2025 are predicted to remain close to 40 percent above 2015-2019 levels (Figure 1).
Prices of energy and food commodities, for instance, are expected to moderate but remain about 40 and 30 percent above their 2015-2019 averages, respectively. Base metals prices are set to rise slightly this year and next, averaging roughly 40 percent higher than in 2015-2019.
Commodity prices are projected to experience a slight downturn in 2024 and 2025 but are expected to remain above pre-pandemic levels. Energy prices are expected to decline by 3 percent in 2024, as notably lower prices of natural gas and coal offset higher oil prices, followed by a further decline of 4 percent in 2025. Agricultural prices are expected to ease as well in this year and next amid improved supply conditions. Metal prices are set to remain steady in 2024, before rising slightly in 2025. Although the price forecasts assume no further conflict escalation, risks remain tilted to the upside, stemming from the possibility of conflict in the Middle East and its consequent impact on energy supplies.
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Path of commodity prices depends on pace of recovery and containment of COVID-19
WASHINGTON, April 20, 2021 – Commodity prices continued their recovery in the first quarter of 2021 and are expected to remain close to current levels throughout the year, lifted by the global economic rebound and improved growth prospects, according to the World Bank’s semi-annual Commodity Markets Outlook.
Pandemic on CommoditiesWhy and how are developing countries particularly vulnerable to volatility in commodity prices?
Energy and metal prices seen falling in 2019, 2020 on slowing demand
WASHINGTON, October 29, 2019 – Energy and metal commodity prices are expected to continue to fall in 2020 following sharp declines in 2019 on a weaker outlook for global growth and consequent softer demand, the World Bank said in its October Commodity Markets Outlook.
“Slowing demand for commodities presents a challenge for exporters and an opportunity for importers,” said Ceyla Pazarbasioglu, World Bank Group Vice President for Equitable Growth, Finance & Institutions. “As both of them switch from using one commodity to another due to price fluctuation and technological advance, it will be important that these resources be produced and consumed in an environmentally sustainable way.”
Posted 26 April, 2016
WASHINGTON, April 26, 2016— Amid improving market sentiment and a weakening dollar, the World Bank is raising its 2016 forecast for crude oil prices to $41 per barrel from $37 per barrel in its latest Commodity Markets Outlook, as an oversupply in markets is expected to recede.
Netherlands for the World Bank 
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