Tag Archives: Outlook

The Commodity Markets Outlook in eight charts

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Commodity prices are projected to experience a slight downturn in 2024 and 2025 but are expected to remain above pre-pandemic levels. Energy prices are expected to decline by 3 percent in 2024, as notably lower prices of natural gas and coal offset higher oil prices, followed by a further decline of 4 percent in 2025. Agricultural prices are expected to ease as well in this year and next amid improved supply conditions. Metal prices are set to remain steady in 2024, before rising slightly in 2025. Although the price forecasts assume no further conflict escalation, risks remain tilted to the upside, stemming from the possibility of conflict in the Middle East and its consequent impact on energy supplies.

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Publication: Commodity Markets Outlook, October 2023: Under the Shadow of Geopolitical Risks

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Abstract02 - CMO 2023b Frontmatters.pub
The conflict in the Middle East—the latest of an extraordinary series of shocks in recent years—has heightened geopolitical risks for commodity markets, in an already uncertain global environment. Before the conflict began, voluntary oil supply withdrawals by OPEC+ producers pushed energy prices up 9 percent in the third quarter. As a result, the World Bank’s commodity price index rose 5 percent over that period and is now 45 percent above its 2015-19 average. For now, the war’s impact on commodity prices have been muted. Prices of oil and gold have risen moderately, but most other commodity prices have remained relatively stable. Nevertheless, history suggests that an escalation of the conflict represents a major risk that could lead to surging prices of oil and other commodities. A Special Focus section provides a preliminary assessment of the potential impact of the conflict on commodity prices. It finds that the effects of the conflict are likely to be limited, assuming the conflict does not widen. Under that assumption, the baseline forecast calls for commodity prices to decline slightly over the next two years. If the conflict does escalate, the assessment also includes what might happen under three risk scenarios, relying upon historical precedents to estimate the effects of small, moderate, and large disruptions to the global oil supply. The magnitude of the effects will depend on the duration and scale of the supply disruptions.
 
 
 

 

Commodity prices likely to rise further in 2018: World Bank

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CMO2017c_PR_table01Oil prices to average $56 a barrel in 2018, up from 2017 average of $53/bbl

WASHINGTON, October 26 – Oil prices are forecast to rise to $56 a barrel in 2018 from $53 this year as a result of steadily growing demand, agreed production cuts among oil exporters and stabilizing U.S. shale oil production, while the surge in metals prices is expected to level off next year, the World Bank said on Thursday.

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