5.2 percent in 2020 in South Asia. But this was somewhat surprising because household surveys globally showed remittances falling, especially in the second quarter of 2020.Remittances seem to have been even more essential during the COVID-19 pandemic, increasing by
So, what happened in South Asia? Many studies indicate that remittances tend to increase when receiving households experience disasters or recessions. However, since the COVID-19 shock was global in nature, both home (recipient) and foreign (sender) countries were impacted.
Remittances seem to have been even more essential during the COVID-19 pandemic, increasing by 5.2 percent in 2020 in South Asia
Note: Migrants originated from Bhutan and Maldives are excluded from the figure as the number is too small to be shown. Nepal, India, and Australia are major host countries for migrants originated from Bhutan, and migrants originated from Maldives predominantly go to Sri Lanka, India, and Australia. US=United States, UK=United Kingdom, UAE: United Arab Emirates, QAT=Qatar, OMN=Oman, KWT=Kuwait. Source: United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2020). International Migrant Stock 2020.
Our analysis in the World Bank’s latest South Asia Economic Focus shows that several factors help explain the large increase in remittances in 2020. Some also suggest there are great opportunities for policy interventions.
- Savings repatriation. One example: Saudi Arabia granted less than 10,000 work visas per quarter in the first and third quarters of 2020, compared to an average approval rate of over 40,000.
- Better capturing of remittance statistics. . Before COVID-related travel restrictions, a significant share of remittances may have arrived through trips home by migrants or their trusted friends with cash in hand, gifts, etc. This was no longer an option during the pandemic.
- Generosity. Dire economic conditions in South Asia could have encouraged greater giving by migrants’ close-knit family and community ties. . Current giving campaigns by diaspora amid the health crisis in India suggest this altruism is alive and well in 2021!
- Financial innovation. The shift to more formal channels was facilitated by the accelerated development of Fintech and digital transfer apps such as G-pay and Alipay, which have made the digital transfer of funds more accessible and cheaper per transaction, leading to an overall increase in remittances.
- Tax incentives. Increasingly, policymakers want to encourage greater formal remittances. This one-off change may explain the high growth rate in 2020.
- Host country transfers. Some migrants were able to access cash transfers offered by host country governments, which would allow then to send home higher amounts than normal (e.g., stimulus payments in the United States).
For many low-income households in the receiving country, remittances are a key stable tool of poverty alleviation
It’s not clear which effect mattered more, let alone whether the increase in remittances is temporary or permanent. Much will depend on post-COVID migration policies in host countries.
But as in other areas of policy, the pandemic has provided an opportunity to better reap the economic benefits of migrant work. For the host countries, migrants are willing to work hard and consistently if provided with reasonable opportunities, raising growth potential in host countries–many of which are facing long-term national labor supply shortfalls amid lower birth rates and aging populations.
The pandemic has also accelerated innovation and competition in digital platforms.Single-corridor Fintech solutions are giving way to multiple-corridor platforms, which could enable local institutions to access both sender and receiver through digital wallets. A low-hanging fruit for policymakers!